augmented intelligence certification (AI) is set to change the world in dramatic ways soon. Nay-sayers claim it will lead to, at best, rising unemployment and civil unrest, and at worst, the eradication of humanity. Advocates, on the other hand, are telling us to look forward to a future of leisure and creativity as robots take care of the drudgery and routine.</p> ;<div id="attachment_2866" class="wp-caption alignnone"> ; <div class="article-body-image"> ; <progressive-image class="size-large wp-image-2866" src="https://blogs-images.forbes.com/bernardmarr/files/2018/07/AdobeStock_166966052-1200×800.jpg" alt="" data-height="800" data-width="1200"></progressive-image> ; </div> ; <div article-image-caption=""> ; <div class="caption-container" ng-class="caption_state"> ; <p class="wp-caption-text">Adobe Stock<small class="article-photo-credit">Adobe Stock</small></p> ; </div> ; </div> ;</div> ;<p>A third camp – probably the largest – are happy to admit that the forces of change which are at work are too complicated to predict and, for the moment, everything is up in the air. Previous large-scale changes to the way we work (past industrial revolutions) may have been disruptive in the short-term. However, in the long term what happened was a transfer of labor from countryside to cities, and no lasting downfall of society.</p> ;<p>However, as author Calum Chace points out in his latest book ‘augmented intelligence certification and the Two Singularities’ this time there’s one big difference. Previous industrial revolutions involved replacing human mechanical skills with tools and machinery. This time it’s our mental functions which are being replaced – particularly our ability to make predictions and decisions. This is something which has never happened before in human history, and no one exactly knows what to expect.</p> ;<p> ; </p> ;<p>When I recently met with Culum Chase in London, he told me “A lot of people think it didn’t happen in the past, so it won’t happen now – but everything is different now.</p> ;<p>“In the short run, AI will create more jobs as we learn how to work better with machines. But it’s important to think on a slightly longer timescale than the next 10 to 15 years.”</p> ;<p>One guiding idea has always been that as machines take care of menial work (be that manual labor, augmenting the abilities of skilled professionals such doctors, lawyers, and engineers, or making routine decisions), humans will be free to spend their time on leisure or creative pursuits.</p> ;<div class="vestpocket" vest-pocket=""></div> ;<p>However, as Chace says, that would require the existence of the “abundance economy” – a Star Trek-like utopia where the means of filling our basic needs – sustenance and shelter – are so highly available that they are essentially free.</p> ;<p>Without this happening, humans will find themselves in a situation where they have to go out and compete for whatever paid jobs are still available to humans in the robot-dominated workforce. As a simple example, a fully automated farm would, in theory, provide food at a far cheaper cost than one staffed with human farm hands, machinery operators, administrative staff, distributions operatives and security guards. However, if the owner of the farm still parts with his goods to the highest bidder, there would be inequalities in how that food is distributed among the populace and the potential for a poverty-struck underclass which lacks access to adequate sustenance. Nothing new there – of course, this underclass has always existed throughout history. However, it doesn’t exactly fit with the idea of the Star Trek utopia we need to have in place before we can comfortably hand the reigns to the machines.</p> ;<p>This makes it something of a “chicken and egg” problem, and the ideal way for it to play out would seemingly be a gradual and managed transition to a smart machine-driven economy. This process would involve careful oversight of which human roles were being automated, and ensuring that the “plentiful” resources are in place to support those who unfortunately do find that they are being replaced, rather than merely “augmented.”</p> ;<p>The problem is that this would require two elements: A concerted and informed effort from governments and regulators to understand the scale of the challenge and enable the right framework for it to happen. And an acceptance by those leading the charge – the tech industry – that there is a more important motive than profit for getting the change right.</p> ;<p>Neither of those seems likely to happen any time soon. Despite the “make the world a better place” ethos, big tech’s overriding aim is still to generate growth and profit for their enterprises.</p> ;<p>Also, managing the political change could be an even tougher job than persuading a tech CEO that she shouldn’t be focusing on revenue or profits.</p> ;<p>“People aren’t stupid,” Chace says, while discussing how automated driving systems look set to erode the employment opportunities for humans whose trade is driving.</p> ;<p>“They will see these robots driving around taking people’s jobs, and think ‘it won’t be long until they come for mine’ – and then there will be a panic. And panics lead to very nasty populist politicians, of the left or the right, being elected.”</p> ;<p>Chace also doesn’t believe that the concept of universal basic income – currently being trialed in some Scandinavian countries – is the right answer, or at least not in its current form.</p> ;<p>“The problem with universal basic income is that it’s basic. If all we can do is give people a basic income, we’ve failed, and society probably isn’t saveable.”</p> ;<p>A future where the majority of humans live a subsistence-level income funded by the fruits of a robotic labor force, while a “1 percent” upper class – those in control of the robots – build their empires and reach for the stars – isn’t appealing to those with an egalitarian mindset. However, it could be the direction we’re heading in.</p> ;<p>However, argues Chace, it’s not too late to plot a better course.</p> ;<p>“We’ve all got a job to do – to wake up our political leaders who are not thinking about this, and wake up our tech leaders – who seem to be deeply in denial.</p> ;<p>“If we do grasp the challenge we can have an amazing world for ourselves, our kids and our grandkids, a world where machines do the boring stuff and humans do the worthwhile, interesting stuff.”</p> ;<p>Calum Chace’s newest book, <span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-Singularities-Chapman-Robotics/dp/0815368534/ref=la_B00PUM096S_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1530282732&sr=1-4" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" data-ga-track="ExternalLink:https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-Singularities-Chapman-Robotics/dp/0815368534/ref=la_B00PUM096S_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1530282732&sr=1-4">augmented intelligence certification and The Two Singularities</a></span>, is available now.</p>”>
If you consider the hoopla, then augmented intelligence certification (AI) is set to alter the earth in remarkable techniques shortly. Nay-sayers assert it will lead to, at greatest, growing unemployment and civil unrest, and at worst, the eradication of humanity. Advocates, on the other hand, are telling us to seem ahead to a foreseeable future of leisure and creative imagination as robots just take care of the drudgery and regime.
A 3rd camp – most likely the largest – are delighted to admit that the forces of modify which are at function are far too intricate to predict and, for the instant, every little thing is up in the air. Earlier substantial-scale alterations to the way we operate (previous industrial revolutions) may perhaps have been disruptive in the shorter-term. Having said that, in the lengthy phrase what happened was a transfer of labor from countryside to towns, and no lasting downfall of modern society.
Even so, as author Calum Chace details out in his newest ebook ‘augmented intelligence certification and the Two Singularities’ this time there is 1 huge difference. Past industrial revolutions included changing human mechanical skills with equipment and machinery. This time it is our psychological features which are becoming changed – particularly our skill to make predictions and choices. This is something which has hardly ever occurred prior to in human background, and no one particular exactly is familiar with what to anticipate.
When I just lately fulfilled with Culum Chase in London, he told me “A large amount of folks think it didn’t transpire in the past, so it will not come about now – but all the things is distinct now.
“In the small operate, AI will develop much more work opportunities as we master how to function greater with devices. But it’s crucial to assume on a a bit extended timescale than the subsequent 10 to 15 several years.”
A single guiding notion has usually been that as machines acquire care of menial operate (be that handbook labor, augmenting the skills of competent gurus this kind of medical practitioners, legal professionals, and engineers, or building program choices), humans will be absolutely free to spend their time on leisure or inventive pursuits.
However, as Chace claims, that would call for the existence of the “abundance economy” – a Star Trek-like utopia in which the indicates of filling our fundamental requires – sustenance and shelter – are so really offered that they are in essence free of charge.
With out this going on, human beings will obtain them selves in a situation wherever they have to go out and compete for no matter what paid out positions are nonetheless obtainable to people in the robotic-dominated workforce. As a uncomplicated illustration, a thoroughly automatic farm would, in idea, present foodstuff at a much less expensive charge than just one staffed with human farm hands, equipment operators, administrative employees, distributions operatives and stability guards. However, if the proprietor of the farm even now areas with his items to the maximum bidder, there would be inequalities in how that foodstuff is distributed among the the populace and the potential for a poverty-struck underclass which lacks entry to satisfactory sustenance. Nothing at all new there – of course, this underclass has always existed all over background. On the other hand, it does not accurately healthy with the thought of the Star Trek utopia we will need to have in location right before we can comfortably hand the reigns to the machines.
This can make it some thing of a “chicken and egg” trouble, and the suitable way for it to participate in out would seemingly be a gradual and managed changeover to a wise device-pushed overall economy. This process would include thorough oversight of which human roles were being becoming automated, and making certain that the “plentiful” methods are in spot to assistance those people who sadly do come across that they are remaining changed, rather than just “augmented.”
The issue is that this would require two things: A concerted and knowledgeable hard work from governments and regulators to have an understanding of the scale of the challenge and permit the ideal framework for it to occur. And an acceptance by those people foremost the demand – the tech marketplace – that there is a far more important motive than earnings for receiving the alter ideal.
Neither of those people appears to be probably to happen any time before long. Even with the “make the environment a superior place” ethos, massive tech’s overriding aim is nevertheless to crank out growth and revenue for their enterprises.
Also, handling the political transform could be an even tougher work than persuading a tech CEO that she shouldn’t be focusing on profits or profits.
“People are not stupid,” Chace suggests, whilst talking about how automated driving units glance set to erode the work prospects for human beings whose trade is driving.
“They will see these robots driving around getting people’s work, and imagine ‘it won’t be very long until they occur for mine’ – and then there will be a stress. And panics lead to very terrible populist politicians, of the remaining or the correct, becoming elected.”
Chace also doesn’t think that the concept of universal basic cash flow – now becoming trialed in some Scandinavian countries – is the correct solution, or at the very least not in its existing form.
“The dilemma with common basic income is that it’s basic. If all we can…